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<meta itemprop="description" content="没有永远的优等生，卷子一直在变。……寄希望于封锁、自测，都不如实实在在把疫苗接种率提上去。疫苗对重症的保护，和让社会免于封锁（封锁导致物资供给困难、就医不足和自杀率升高），都是对生命的切实保护，收益远远大于其副作用带来的损害。应该拿出更多预算来推动老幼人群的接种率，绝对比花在封锁隔离上划算。"><meta itemprop="datePublished" content="2022-03-27T00:00:00+00:00" />
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      <h1 class="post-title">上海新冠封控两则</h1>

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        <span class="post-time"> 2022-03-27 </span>
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            <a href="/categories/%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%84/"> 时评 </a>
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          <span class="more-meta"> 约 1123 字 </span>
          <span class="more-meta"> 预计阅读 3 分钟 </span>
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  <h2 class="post-toc-title">文章目录</h2>
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    <li><a href="#03-22">03-22</a></li>
    <li><a href="#03-27">03-27</a></li>
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      <h2 id="03-22">03-22</h2>
<p>本月全面解封基本无望；相反，可能还要加码。从其他社会面清零的城市经验来看，一般要快速达峰后，高位波动几天，才开始调头下行。目前上海还在爬第一个峰，一周内磨出顶算好的了。无症状比例那么高，并不寻常，毕竟诊断标准还在收紧（确诊CT值从40降到35）。之前精准防疫各种好，因为范围小，动作早，防疫人员专业给力。这波发现得晚，传得广，精兵一下不够用了，于是作战下放到社区，结果乱来一气：普筛核酸不摸底，不保证全员率；封小区前放人出去大采购；病号困在小区看不了病的破事也出来了。预计管控措施要升级，普筛的组织力度会加强。没有永远的优等生，卷子一直在变。</p>
<div class="admonition note"><p class="admonition-title">无症状感染者</p>
<p>上海卫健委3月6日新闻发布会：临床上没有症状，没有咽痛、发烧、乏力、干咳、嗅觉减退等症状和体征，同时无CT影像学特征表现，但新冠病毒核酸检测是阳性的。</p>
</div>
<div class="admonition note"><p class="admonition-title">新冠肺炎轻症患者</p>
<p>第九版新冠肺炎临床诊疗方案（试行）：……临床症状轻微，影像学未见肺炎表现。</p>
</div>
<h2 id="03-27">03-27</h2>
<figure class="center"><img src="https://gh-1251443721.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/2022/0327/shanghai-covid-20220327.jpg"
         alt="上海本土新冠确诊"/><figcaption>
            <h4>图 | 上海本土新冠确诊趋势</h4>
        </figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="center"><img src="https://gh-1251443721.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/2022/0327/shenzhen-covid-20220327.jpg"
         alt="深圳本土新冠确诊"/><figcaption>
            <h4>图 | 深圳本土新冠确诊趋势</h4>
        </figcaption>
</figure>
<p>浦东昨天一千八，今天三百。闵行昨天三百，今天一千。轮流高报，缓释爬坡，很难相信数据有什么实时代表性。如果只是官方在压数字，那实际情况反倒是乐观的，可能已经在磨顶；但如果是检测发现能力饱和，那实际情况是悲观的，达峰时间还要往后推。逻辑上后者更说得通。现在的情况，基层卫生口阿猫阿狗都上前线，受没受训的都参与采样，没日没夜的干，这行不通。专业活有专业标准，做半吊子还不如不做。把偶像包袱扔一扔，别扯啥劳什子咖啡红酒，赶紧虚心求援。东方之珠能向中央伸手，东方明珠有什么伸不得？反正都是珠，谁比谁高贵？不少小区封了一两个礼拜了，微博上一片骂，商委才开始官方组建物资保障体系，思想上明显轻敌了。轻敌就拿不到足够的资源，就要吃败仗。</p>
<p>实际上PCR人手已经不够，连高校研究生都动员起来了，所以非重点区域只能让群众自测抗原。抗原快检试剂早就做出来了，出口创汇都已经两年，现在国内才批准了用，实在也是迫不得已。胶体金便宜好使，但灵敏度真不行，跟PCR比，CT值25以下时一致率还有95%，25以上就几乎腰斩，35以上时只有20%多，而原先的国标是40，想想看能漏掉多少。即使第九版诊疗规范降到35，一周也得做三次才能把假阴性率降到能看的地步。这个方法主要是给防疫部门做区域预警信号用，不太可能做主力。</p>
<p>治得好不如发现得早，发现早不如预防得实。寄希望于封锁、自测，都不如实实在在把疫苗接种率提上去。疫苗对重症的保护，和让社会免于封锁（封锁导致物资供给困难、就医不足和自杀率升高），都是对生命的切实保护，收益远远大于其副作用带来的损害。应该拿出更多预算来推动老幼人群的接种率，绝对比花在封锁隔离上划算。</p>
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